| Prince George’s County State’s Attorney Glenn Ivey was reported recently to have given up the idea of running for County Executive. He is instead said to be considering a challenge to Representative Donna Edwards in the district that includes parts of Prince George’s and Montgomery counties. 
Ivey has twice won election as State's Attorney in Prince George’s, but is that enough to help him beat a popular and energetic incumbent who trounced the machine of Al Wynn very recently with grassroots energy? Let's explore that.
First up is the vote total for the 2008 primary. Edwards beat the Wynn 59% to 37% (four other Democrats split the remaining four percent), for a very convincing victory against a long-time incumbent with no money problems and strong name recognition. Now while most are aware that Edwards trounced Wynn in Montgomery County where roughly 1/3 of primary voters lived by more than 2 to 1, many seem to forget that she also won over a convincing 57% of primary voters in Prince George’s. Montgomery Prince George's Totals
Albert R. Wynn 11,731 37,154 78,008 (58.9%)
Donna Edwards 28,781 49,227 48,885 (36.9%)
From: Maryland Board of Elections
Since the election Edwards seems to have gotten off to at least a decent start cultivating communities that she might not have been familiar with during and before the campaign and not a lot of discontent has been voiced about her work (* see below for the one exception). While there is always room to improve on her outreach and media work, she has been seen in the community more than Wynn was and at least as much as most Members of Congress who don't expect a serious challenge. Second, it’s incredibly hard to garner endorsements or donations from PACs, prominent officials and other organizations when running against an incumbent. As now-Representative Donna Edwards learned when she challenged the incumbent Al Wynn, just like now State Senator Jamie Raskin learned when he went up against the Senate Presient Pro-tem Ida Ruben, and others have learned the hard way, even when the incumbent is not popular, doesn’t respond to their interests, or vote their way, few groups are willing to take a risk on a challenger. While Edwards did manage to break Wynn’s hold on the seat, she did so with an intense, long-term effort that included a close loss in 2006 that demonstrated to would-be-2008 supporters that she could beat the incumbent. Since then she has locked down the support of corporations, associations, unions, advocacy groups and community organizations, as illustrated not just by the endorsing organizations listed on her home page, but by numerous groups that donate substantial sums of money for her reelection, including many who signed up since her powerful victory over Wynn. Now any challenger knows that there are lots of sources of money. Some have suggested that Ivey may find the cash among a few strongly pro-Israel organizations and individuals who might not like her “present” vote one time, she has hardly raised the ire of even that block. After all, she was swept to office with strong support from Jews in Montgomery County and elsewhere impressed with her strong progressive credentials and work. This reader will be very interested to see where Ivey thinks he can get the money he’ll need to make his name known to the 1/3 of primary voters who live in Montgomery County, win over Prince George’s residents who just finished voting for Edwards, and run a competitive race in less than nine months before the primary with so many already firmly committed to Edwards. She has voted and acted well in line with what her constituents wanted when they elected her, so unless Ivey can demonstrate real differences or an incredible but hitherto unknown fundraising base, this may be a very tough race. Questions have also arisen in publications, from the Washington Post to local blogs about how Ivey has served as prosecutor. While these questions may not be of any prominence or concern to many, they are surely as interesting to as large an audience as the few concerns Marylanders have about Edwards. Finally, it seems that Ivey may have to compete with Montgomery County Del. Herman Taylor for whatever money there may be in the business community, moderate voters and whatever anti-Edwards sentiment there is. Taylor has been stirring rumors that he's interested in running for Congress, too, but while it's always possible that the double-team challenge will whittle down Edwards' support, it's more likely that the presence of Ivey and Taylor will assure Edwards of victory as they scramble to unseat her. And since Taylor has hardly set even Montgomery on fire with his performance as a delegate and is presumably far less well known in Prince George's, he is unlikely to stand a real chance himself. Donna Edwards was a welcome change when she offered residents of Maryland's 4th congressional district progressive leadership that listens and responds to their needs. She ran a strong, grassroots campaign that succeeded in convincingly beating a long-time incumbent. Since winning election she seems to have served her constituents well, hasn't made any significant mistakes or powerful enemies, and continues to work to build her strength. While Glenn Ivey is widely thought to be a popular official and a capable candidate, it is not clear that there is any real room for him to beat Edwards in 2010 if she keeps working hard.
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