Hard Times for Governors, but Not O'Malley?

by: Isaac Smith

Mon Jul 13, 2009 at 08:49 AM EDT

The economy is, of course, the main source of grief for governors of all stripes and in all regions. From Florida to Oregon, state governments are being forced to slash programs, lay off workers and, where possible, raise taxes as well.

Coping with that economy will be the main order of business at the NGA meeting, where frustration is likely to reign. There is not much a governor can do about unemployment approaching double digits (where it's not there already). Yet governors take the heat for all the unpopular measures they must take in a down economy.

Many political scientists and other observers continue to view the states as the laboratories of good governance, a source of hope for civic success. But a combination of hard times and bad behavior has battered this belief. And it has done even more to damage the image of the governor as the glamorous executive, the can-do source of solutions.

Neither tax increases nor budget cuts are popular, but governors, including Gov. O'Malley, have been forced to do both in response to the recession. Maryland, at least, is fortunate not to have California-style levels of political dysfunction; closing the deficit has mainly been a distasteful, but feasible, task, rather than a fiscal Armageddon.

What's interesting to me is that Gov. O'Malley does not seem to have suffered all that much on account of the lousy economy. The last poll that I'm aware of, from January, had his approval rating at 49%, and that had been on a upward trend since the beginning of 2008. And during that time, he signed off on a fair number of budget cuts as a member of the Board of Public Works. Granted, those cuts were much smaller than what the General Assembly approved in the most recent session, but I'd like to see what O'Malley's ratings are now, after that last round of cuts. Of course, the better question to ask may be, what will O'Malley's approval rating be after the (likely) next round of cuts -- during an election year.

The O'Malley-Franchot Détente

by: Isaac Smith

Fri Dec 05, 2008 at 12:24 PM EST

Bi-monthly Board of Public Works meetings have been sparring grounds for Gov. Martin O'Malley and Comptroller Peter Franchot, but yesterday the sharp-tongued tax collector issued rare kind words for his political rival from Baltimore.

"I ... want to salute the governor," Franchot said.

The reason for Franchot's decorousness: O'Malley was voting to approve an $87 million software upgrade that the comptroller's office says will yield hundreds of millions of dollars in uncollected taxes.

A month ago, the O'Malley administration refused to bring the contract before the board, composed of the governor, the comptroller and state Treasurer Nancy K. Kopp.

Of course, given that the slots referendum passed -- a big win for O'Malley -- this change of heart comes off as more of a consolation prize for Franchot, while still painting O'Malley in a positive light. Let it never be said that the Governor doesn't know how to play hardball.

The Mercy Seat

by: Isaac Smith

Fri Nov 14, 2008 at 01:07 AM EST

A while back, Gov. O'Malley, who opposes the death penalty but doesn't have sufficient political cover in the General Assembly to actually ban it, created a panel to study the issue and make recommendations. They've responded:

The commission voted down a proposed amendment to retain the death penalty for people who kill correctional officers or police officers. It voiced unanimous or strong support for seven of eight findings it was charged with exploring. Among these:

• Racial and geographic disparities exist in how the death penalty is applied.

• Death penalty cases are more costly than non-death penalty cases and take a greater toll on the survivors of murder victims.

• There is no persuasive evidence that risk of execution is a deterrent to crime, and the unavailability of DNA evidence in some cases opens the "real possibility" of wrongly executing an innocent person.

The commission did not find sufficient evidence of disparities in death penalty cases based on socioeconomic factors.

This seems like adequate cover to me. Still, public opinion on the death penalty ranges from mildly in favor to mildly against, depending on how the question is phrased. So even expert opinion may not be enough to sway lawmakers to support a ban. This is especially true at the Judiciary Committee level, where you have people like Alex Mooney who are wrestling with their consciences and thus have disproportionate influence over the entire outcome.

On the Victory of Slots

by: Isaac Smith

Fri Nov 07, 2008 at 08:00 AM EST

Question 2 passed, of course, and by a wide margin. If you were viewing the campaign over legalizing slot machines this year as a proxy battle between Peter Franchot and Martin O'Malley, then you'd have to conclude that the Governor won this one big -- enough that Franchot's dreams of challenging O'Malley in 2010, if he ever entertained them, are dashed. O'Malley and the pro-slots coalition had two advantages going into the vote: The wording of the ballot question made it almost entirely about funding education, and opposing that is like opposing puppies and sunshine; and the onset of the economic crisis made people much more anxious about the continued financing of state programs. The exit poll data bears this out: voters concerned about the economy and those with young children were much more likely to support Question 2.

But the slots debate is about more than political brawling; while slots are now a reality in Maryland after many years of debate, the question of how to put slots in place will now come to the fore. Yesterday's Post showed that bidding for slots licenses has already begun:

Before 9 a.m., the Maryland Jockey Club announced its intention to seek a slots license at Laurel Park in Anne Arundel County. Potential bidders for the five sites authorized by voters face an aggressive Feb. 1 deadline to pull together proposals, and no one knows how many will come forward. 

Gov. Martin O'Malley (D) and legislative leaders said they would move briskly to appoint a commission to pick Maryland's slots operators. That is just one of many administrative steps required before slots parlors can open to the public -- and before the state can begin to reap a share of the proceeds.

There's still the question of whether the state will keep the 67% tax rate on slots revenue, as mentioned last week, not to mention the possibility of local attempts to block or limit construction of slots parlors.

Thoughts From the Teachers Convention

by: Eric Luedtke

Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 11:46 AM EDT

Just got back last night from Ocean City, where I was at the convention of the Maryland State Teachers Association (soon to be the Maryland State Education Association). I actually had a good time this year, as opposed to last year when I basically got called stupid on the floor of the convention by a member of the MSTA board. It probably helped that I didn't really get up and say anything this time.

Anyway, lots of political speeches. Martin O'Malley, who I'll come back to in a second. Dennis van Roekel, who is the new President of the NEA, and who always gives a good speech. Frank Kratovil, who did an incredible job of contrasting himself with crazy Andy Harris, and who definitely has the strong support of teachers. The Maryland State Teacher of the Year, William Thomas, who gave probably the best speech of the entire convention, tying the success of teachers and their associations to the success of our public schools. And then the normal speeches from MSTA President Clara Floyd and Executive Director David Helfman.

Anyway, so O'Malley. Whoever wrote the speech for him did a spectacular job. I mean, just incredible. It was the sort of prose you'd expect in a Presidential speech - that is, as soon as we get a President who knows how to speak. But his delivery was a little off, unfortunately, which meant that the great writing translated into a decidedly mediocre speech. He looked tired, quite frankly. And I can understand that. It's been a tough year what with the budget being in a constant downward spiral. Though, I have to tell you, O'Malley's sticking up for education in the recent budget cuts has definitely warmed me up to him again.

I think he was hoping for a little bit of a pick-me-up from the teachers. In the middle section of his speech, he turned to a sort of full-throated advocacy for the slots referendum that we really haven't seen too often. And. It. Bombed. I mean, there was a smattering of polite applause in spots. But it felt like he was looking for a standing ovation, and he certainly didn't get it. There are still some raw nerves from the process MSTA used to decide to support the referendum. And leadership has done nothing to address that, ruling anything related to it out of order at this convention. I think people are tired of the issue, and bitter, though it'll almost certainly be a factor in the leadership elections happening this spring. But O'Malley carried on, regardless.

If youre interested, MSTA has again posted blogs from a number of attendees on their website, though some of them are decidedly better than others.

Voter Registrations Promise Shift in Maryland Electoral Math

by: Eric Luedtke

Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 08:42 AM EDT

Politicker caught a great page from the Maryland Board of Elections describing voter registration patterns, including data on registration by party affiliation and the nifty chart you see below. It reinforces what Isaac wrote on Wednesday, though his numbers are actual registrations and these are projections, so the Board of Elections may have actually underestimated the turnout gap this year.

You'll see some interesting patterns. From 1992 to 2000, Democrats were registering almost exactly twice as many new voters as Republicans. That pattern has changed in the last two cycles, rising to 2.2 Democratic registrations per Republican registration in 2004 and to 3 D's per R in 2008.

It seems evident from this data that the popularity of the Republican Party in Maryland is collapsing. One commenter on Politicker ascribes it to the radicalization of the Republican Party, and that certainly plays a role. There are a lot of Connie Morella / Wayne Gilchrest Democrats who are disaffected by the Andy Harris's of the world. And not everyone wants to be part of a political party whose presidential campaign events have begun to look like the mob lighting torches on their way to Frankenstein's castle. And then there's W, who has done irreparable harm not only to America but to his own party.

Another commenter on Politicker thinks those disaffected moderate Republicans are registering as independents. It's a little ridiculous to think that every registered independent leans right. And even if you add every new Republican and independent registration, Democrats are still registering more voters. But, in any case, a person who has abandoned their party affiliation is more likely to consider voting for a candidate of any party, including the one they used to oppose.

What does this mean? Pretty obviously, the more Democrats that are registered, the better chance Democrats have of winning. That's especially true when our candidates can actually motivate Democrats to turn out to the polls. Obama and eight years of Bush/Cheney/McCain are doing just that this year. That's one thing that will be boosting Frank Kratovil in the 1st district. If turnout in his district looks anything like the early voting turnout numbers coming out of Georgia, black voters and the Democratic base are going to show up in droves this year.

What's more, every new Democratic voter makes our road in 2010 easier. O'Malley beat Ehrlich in 2006 by around 117,000 votes. Ehrlich beat Townsend in 2002 by 66,000 votes. Because of this year's registration gap, there are now around 143,000 more Democrats than Republicans in the state now than in 2004. That's bigger than either margin of victory. In other words, as the registration gap grows, Republicans are going to have to win not only independents but a big subset of Democrats in order to have any chance of winning the governor's mansion.

Or, put another way, Maryland is becoming a deeper shade of blue every cycle.

More Cuts, and Time to Talk Sense on Combined Reporting

by: Eric Luedtke

Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 09:50 PM EDT

Annapolis is quaking in its boots, with O'Malley looking for another 5% in cuts. It's gotta be done, but it's gonna hurt a lot of valuable programs. And there's likely to be more in the spring, unless a miracle happens and the economy turns around.

At this point, it's ridiculous for elected officials to continue insisting that no new revenue sources should be looked at. Obviously, any tax placed on the average, middle-class Maryland is out of the question. But, at the very least, can't we agree, as Senator Pinsky suggests, that out of state companies should pay the same corporate taxes as companies based in the state. Why should Wal-mart get away with not paying taxes?

Slots Referendum Update

by: Isaac Smith

Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 10:11 AM EDT

• Despite the vigorous opposition being mounted against the slots referendum, a new Rasmussen poll shows 54% of Marylanders in favor of it.
• The House Republican caucus comes out against the referendum, though they seem to be motivated less by substantive concerns and more by a desire to stick it to Gov. O'Malley.
• Senate President Mike Miller admits that slots aren't "the greatest idea in the world. It's not the means of funding all government." As Eric has pointed out in an earlier post, slots opponents seem very enthusiastic, while even a staunch supporter like Miller seems dispirited at best.

Montgomery County Democratic Party Opposes Slots

by: Eric Luedtke

Wed Sep 24, 2008 at 10:21 PM EDT

The Montgomery County Democratic Party's precinct organization voted overwhelmingly tonight to put the county party on record in opposition to the slots referendum. It wasn't even close. Traditionally, the party's recommendation on the sample ballot has held significant sway over the votes of Democrats in the county, so there is no doubt this will build some momentum against the referendum in Montgomery. Some interesting anecdotes from tonight:

- The loudest round of applause of the night was when Comptroller Peter Franchot walked to the front of the room to speak against the referendum.

- The only booing of the night was when it was suggested that the county party should support or stay neutral on the referendum so as not to embarass Governor Martin O'Malley.

- Not a single pro-slots elected official came to speak, including Montgomery County Executive Ike Leggett, who only recently reversed his opinion on the issue and endorsed the referendum.

- I briefly ran into Senate President Mike Miller at a fundraiser for Senator Frosh earlier in the evening, at the tail end of a discussion of the referendum. I don't think Miller really understands that the Democratic base in Montgomery is vehemently anti-slots, and if the precinct organization or the central committee to not oppose the referendum there would be a significant backlash. Even form a purely organizational perspective, the leaders of the county party made the right decision.

- I also ran into Martin O'Malley at the fundraiser, and briefly shook his hand. He introduced himself to a friend I was walking out with by saying, 'Hi, I'm Martin.' Whatever complaints I may have about some of his politics, the Governor is still very much a regular guy.

Will O'Malley Screw the Counties?

by: Eric Luedtke

Tue Sep 23, 2008 at 07:22 PM EDT